The SportsTalk Shop: The Case for Trading Cole

Although I was deeply disappointed the Phillies made zero non-waiver trades before the Major League Baseball “deadline” and have since dispatched only Roberto Hernandez for just a couple low-level minor leagues (or cash considerations), I am not one of those people who think they should simply jettison any or all marquee names off their roster without due cause.

First of all, trading players like Jonathan Papelbon, Ryan Howard, Antonio Bastardo and Kyle Kendrick right now won’t get you much more than Hernandez did (unless you agree to pay most or all of Howard’s and Papelbon’s remaining salaries). Even a team as desperate for bullpen help as the Tigers haven’t offered enough to whet the Phillies’ appetite. Secondly, the Phillies have gone out of their way to retain older, yet fan-adored players who do have trade value—Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Carlos Ruiz—and there wasn’t even a whiff of a trade rumor involving any of these veterans. That leaves just one player…and perhaps only one player…that can be used to obtain players to kickstart the Phillies’ woeful offense and help fill major gaps in the starting rotation.

Colbert Michael Hamels.

I do not take this option lightly. I covered the Phillies beat when there was a rush to trade Curt Shilling—and the team obliged—only to be completely disappointed with the four players they got in return. Shilling went on to lead two different teams to three World Series championships and was a Cy Young runner-up three times. Only Vicente Padilla really flourished with the Phils—and even then it was a little touch-and-go with the fiery right-hander on what you’d actually get out of him on a given day. The other three players (Omar Daal, Nelson Figueroa, Travis Lee) never lived up to their billing, and the team went years before they found a bona fide, “takes us to the promised land” ace, which happened to be—Cole Hamels.

A true number-one pitcher is one of the hardest commodities to groom, and only a handful of teams have the financial resources to even get in the running to buy an ace through free agency. Decades go by before some teams are lucky enough to possess a dominating, lights-out type of pitcher for more than a couple of seasons. But with the Phillies floundering in last place and only a handful of gleaming, yet distant prospects in the team’s organization, trading Hamels has to be something the team is willing to do for the right price, and word is there will be options available this winter.

There have been recent rumors about the Red Sox supposedly offering some of their young players (including Christian Vasquez, Jackie Bradley, Jr. and the once-coveted prospect Xander Bogaerts) to Philadelphia in an off-season deal. I think the Phillies would need to hold out for a team like the Cubs or the Dodgers, who each have at least four young players/blue-chip prospects, to get involved in any trade-Hamels sweepstakes. All three of those teams have cash and the need to pick up a front-line starter, but if you deal a player like Cole, you need to get back at least three players who MUST contribute on the big league level (no need to think too hard to remember the Cliff Lee to Seattle deal).

If you can help solve issues the Phillies’ need to address this off-season (eg., starting pitching depth, improving your defense, improving your offense, adding an everyday outfielder et al), then you need to pull the trigger and deal Hamels.

But Phillies president David Montgomery—whether he believes what he’s been saying or not—has continued to insist the team will not rebuild and wants to remain a playoff contender every year. If they trade Hamels this off-season, doesn’t it mean that they can flush any hope of a post-season appearance down the proverbial toilet for three or four seasons?

Enter free agent-to be, Max Scherzer.

(Wait a minute, Chris…you’re telling me the Phillies would add ANOTHER multi-millionaire, 30-something player to their current projected 2015 salary, which is in excess of $140-million–and that’s just for 17 players?)

Yes, the Phillies would still have to unload a player, or two, from its multi-mega-million dollar core. They would have to ship Howard to an American League team and get next to nothing in return. They might have to pay a team to take Papelbon off their hands. Perhaps you have to throw in one of your weighty contract guys in a Hamels deal (and therefore forfeit a fourth young prospect in return). But Scherzer, a 30-year old who, unlike Roy Halladay or Lee (the second time he was acquired) would be right in the middle of his prime when he arrives in Philly. In effect, you’re flipping Hamels for Scherzer AND three or four quality players that will help your offense and starting pitching.

Consider the following roster minus Howard and Papelbon when you start to look ahead to the 2015 Phillies team—keeping in mind this does NOT include adding the three meaningful bats and/or starting pitchers to your staff along with Scherzer, which could augment/improve what you already have/are stuck with.

SP – Scherzer
SP – Lee
SP – Another mid-level/cheaper option pitcher like Ryan Vogelson, Jason Hammels, Jorge De La Rosa or Edinson Volquez SP – Dave Buchanan SP – Aaron Nola / Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez

Closer: Ken Giles
Set-up: Jake Diekman
RHP Long Relief: Justin DeFratus, Ethan Martin, Gonzalez
LHP Long Relief: Mario Hollands, Bastardo

Catchers: Carlos Ruiz, Wil Nieves / Cameron Rupp

Infielders: Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Mikael Franco, Cody Asche, Freddy Galvis/Cesar Hernandez/Andres Blanco/Reid Brignac (utility guys)

Outfield: Marlon Byrd, Grady Sizemore, Ben Revere, Dom Brown, Darin Ruf and either Rusney Castillo (who may accept a team’s offer as early as this week) or—don’t forget about my ‘surprise signing’ for next year (mentioned in my 8/4/14 blog entry)–Yasmani Tomas.

Would this be enough to get you to re-mortgage your house in lieu of buying 2015 World Series tickets? No. But this might help turn the Phillies in the right direction, while still giving the budget-minded people in the Phillies’ front office reason to expect more fans will come out to Citizens Bank Park in 2015. Plus, with the money the team will be getting in their new TV deal after the following season, mixed with the Phillies own prospects like Roman Quinn, J.P. Crawford and others currently progressing in the lower minors, the future might not be as far away as it feels right now. Even if you have to wait a few years for things to come together, Scherzer would only be 32 for Opening Day 2017, and signing him to a likely six-year contract would mean he would finished his deal by age 36 (which will be Lee’s age next week—and he still has up to two more years on his current pact).

Hey, there’s not many people currently on the Phillies payroll who could honestly dispute that the team right now is anything other than a disaster. You have to start somewhere, and right now, one of the most viable options would see Hamels, a Phillies World Series MVP, pitching his final game in Philadelphia pinstripes this September.

What do you think the Phillies’ next moves should be? Do you think they should trade Hamels…and what should they get in return? Email your opinions to us at RCNSportsTalk@rcn.com and join us this Thursday as we talk about the Phillies, their minor league options and Major League baseball on ‘RCN SportsTalk’ live from 6-7 pm.

 

The SportsTalk Shop: Phillies 2014 Season Outlook (part 1)

 

The expectations are not nearly as high for this Phillies this season as they’ve been in recent springs, but ready or not, Opening Day (and the unofficial end to this miserable winter) is here!

In preparation for the new baseball season, we recapped the action from this year’s spring training down in Florida on last week’s “RCN SportsTalk” show, and coming up this Thursday, we’ll provide an overview of the Phillies and other teams’ major and minor league systems (our special guests will be ESPN’s Eric Longenhagen & PhillyBaseball.com ‘s Chuck Hixson).

First, here’s a sample of the insights we discussed about the Phillies, their prospects from the exhibition season and thoughts on the new season from inside the Phillies organization:

Here are a few more comments and observations from this year’s spring training season and elements to watch as the 2014 season unfolds.

1) Pray for good health. Ryne Sandberg has been much more adept at resting his older players to keep them fresh. While Charlie Manual would often speak of doing this in the preseason, he would quickly resort to playing his veteran ball players heavily which certainly wouldn’t help the established players deal with injuries as the season would unfold. Still, with an aging core, there’s no question that most of the starting players will have to stay healthy for the entire year for the team to have any shot at the playoffs.

2) The bullpen looks good. In talking with a writer who covered the team this spring, I ask which relievers really impressed him and he rattled off five or six different names. In fact, his biggest question mark was with the team’s closer, Jonathan Papelbon, and his velocity and mental approach to the season. If the young relievers can truly develop this season (Jake Diekman might be the stopper before the year is out), this will be a positive for the organization going forward regardless of the outcome of this year’s campaign.

3) The lack of bench power. For various reasons, the team lost potential bench pieces Freddy Galvis, Darin Ruf, Bobby Abreu, Kevin Frandsen and Ronnie Cedeno before the final exhibition game in Clearwater. John Mayberry, Jr. will start the season (barring a waiver-wire addition) as the team’s sole source of power off the bench. Although I was impressed by Tony Gwynn, Jr. and Cesar Hernandez’s preseason, the team starts 2014 with a huge collection of singles-hitters as pinch-hitting options. Plus, there’s SERIOUS depth issues among the organization’s position players. If you lose any combination of Chase Ultey, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins and Cody Asche for any length of time, you’re not just talking about the season being over, you are looking at players who potentially open the season at Double-A needing to step up and play in the big leagues.

We’ll have more on the Phillies, as well as insights on other major and minor league teams on this Thursday’s “SportsTalk” show. And in next week’s post, we’ll hear from some of the Phillies prospects themselves and their outlook on the 2014 season. In the meantime, post a comment below or email us at rcnsportstalk@rcn.com with your thoughts on spring training and predictions for the Phillies in 2014!

 

The SportsTalk Shop: Phillies Spring Training Preview

As I gaze out my window at the freshly fallen snow for the gazillionth time this winter (and the extra two feet of the white stuff the plow truck deposited in front of my driveway), I realized it’s time to get ready for the opening of Major League Baseball’s spring training this week.

For Phillies fans, it will be a busy, yet not-quite-fulfilling spring session, given the lack of big-name moves during the offseason. In fact, there are more questions than in any of the last seven pre-seasons, which were met with much more optimism when compared to this year. Nevertheless, several key issues stand out as items to focus on for this year’s Spring Training if the “Phightin’ Phils” are going to have any shot at challenging for a post-season berth. Here’s four things that you MUST pay attention to as camp gets rolling.

THE VETS MUST BRING IT–AND STAY HEALTHY.
There’s simply no two ways around this one. Ruben Amaro, Jr. has used this as his excuse, er, reasoning, behind all the moves they’ve made since last summer. Guys like Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Carlos Ruiz and other “over-35” players must defy human nature and play better than they did the past two years, even given their advanced age (in baseball terms, of course). The mantra of “these guys we’re paying $20-million to play baseball have to produce for us” that Amaro and Co. have repeated this winter is the foundation of whatever the team hopes to achieve this year. Any sign of a major injury, continued decline or even just a status-quo performance by any of the established players could mean doom for the ball club before the season even starts.

WILL SANDBERG BE ABLE TO CONNECT TO THE VETERANS — LONG-TERM?
After watching Ryne Sandberg manage ball players for two full seasons at the Triple-A level, I can tell you that his style is completely different from Charlie Manuel. He loves to hit-and-run, have his players hit behind runners, bunt the winning run into scoring position, steal a base–at appropriate times–and really likes the game played the way it should be played. Trying to convince some of his dyed-in-the-wool veterans to do so will be a much more arduous task. Manuel thought he had explained the importance of hustling to Rollins, only to have to bench him on several occasions for simply forgetting to play at 100%. John Mayberry Jr., provided he gets on base, should utilize his God-given speed and try to pilfer a base once-a-season. It will be interesting to see if all the players buy in to his fundamentally sound brand of baseball…and what he’ll do when, inevitably, a player doesn’t follow through.

WHO IS THIS MIGUEL ALFREDO GONZALEZ GUY ANYWAY?
After the initial ESPN-reported signing offer of five years, $48-million fell through, the Phillies signed Gonzalez to a $12-million pact over three seasons. At that time, MAG was unofficially slated to be the number-three pitcher behind Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee. Amaro has slowly backed off his expectations so much that is sounds like Gonzalez is not even a guarantee to be in the team’s starting rotation. Sandberg has referred to him as the “mystery man” and almost everyone in the organization admits they have never seen him pitch nor have any idea what to expect from him. Here lies your hopes of a solid pitching staff. Through experience, you cannot expect Kyle Kendrick to be consistently relied on for anything more than a number-four starter. One must dream of a week without snow in Eastern Pennsylvania as a more realistic hope than thinking Roberto Hernandez, Jonathon Pettibone or even Chad Gaudin will be anything remotely close to what the Phillies had in previous year’s “Number-3” guy, Roy Halladay. I will probably be wrong, but I keep holding out hope the Phillies do make a run for A.J. Burnett, Ervin Santana or one of the few remaining quality starters available to try to add SOME consistency to this rotation. If they don’t, Gonzalez will be the single most-watched pitcher in camp, and anything short of a performance that solidifies him as a middle-of-the-rotation guy this spring will be a huge disaster for the Phillies.

WHEN WILL ‘PAP’ MELT DOWN?
Notice I did not say “if” Jonathon Papelbon melts down. It’s simply in his track record of sounding off and creating havoc in the clubhouse when things are not going well. If the Phillies gets off to a bad start in spring training, it could happen sooner rather than later. The Phillies themselves were so convinced of this distraction that they tried to give him away to any team with the need/payroll/ space/patience to acquire him…yet found no takers. Remember, with this young, inexperienced core of relievers joining him in the bullpen this year, it will be pivotal for “Pap” to provide some leadership for the young arms…something that will not happen if the Phillies closer is unhappy. Several of the beat writers have told me that he was a major distraction during 2013 (and his famous line “I didn’t come here for this” would only support their claims) and he will continue to be one in the likely event that all of the above things don’t go absolutely right for this team out of the gate.

Am I being too pessimistic about the 2014 Phillies? What are your thoughts on my “big four” items to watch for this spring training? What other players and issues should we be focused on for the next six weeks…and beyond? Post your comments here on our blog or email your comments and questions to RCNSportsTalk@rcn.com and keep watching future editions of our Thursday “RCN SportsTalk” program, live each week at 6pm, as we start to focus in on the Phillies as the regular season draws near.